Shrinking labor forces and population loss are pressuring rural Missouri to find new revenue sources to balance budgets and avoid tax increases for residents who can’t afford them.
Population loss puts pressure on county budgets. Local officials are finding that protecting a county’s future takes more than saying no to change.
Federal labor and population statistics place several rural Missouri counties in the difficult position of providing valuable services, such as emergency response services, education and roads, for shrinking populations.
A study by Judith Stallman and Austin Sanders of the University of Missouri notes that “jurisdictions losing population must still provide and maintain basic infrastructure and services. That means these costs must be spread across a smaller population, resulting in higher costs per capita.” Some local officials are finding new revenue to keep services running. Others turn it away and leave residents to pay more or get less.
In 2020, Missouri’s growth rate of 0.2 percent was half that of the rest of the country and many of the state’s rural counties lost population. That was particularly true in the Bootheel section of Southeastern Missouri and in counties north of the Missouri River.
“Overall, 62 of Missouri’s 115 counties (including St. Louis City) lost population between 2019 and 2020,” said a report by the Missouri Small Business Development Center. “During that period, 10 of Missouri’s 35 metro counties and 52 of its 80 nonmetro counties lost population.”
The combination of decreasing population and labor forces leads to a vicious cycle as more people leave rural counties to seek opportunities. The remaining populations are older and in poorer health. As Checks & Balances Project reported, many of these counties suffer from premature death rates higher than the Missouri and national averages.
Local officials can’t stop every cause of rural decline. But when they reject new revenue, they owe residents a plan for paying the county’s bills.
Ray Locker is the executive director for Checks & Balances Project, an investigative watchdog blog holding government officials, lobbyists, and corporate management accountable to the public. Funding for C&BP is provided by Renew American Prosperity and individual donors.
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